Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

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Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Lichtgestalt » 21st Feb, '11, 19:35

Looks like there is a wildfire going through North Africa and the Middle East and every country tries to get rid of their dictator or one-party leadership. Apparently there were first attempts to demonstrate in China as well which was predictably squashed right away. Doubt it will happen in Singapore but you never know. Do you think it could spread to Asia?

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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by BoD » 21st Feb, '11, 19:42

Singapore is a multi-party democracy. What do you mean?
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Morrolan » 22nd Feb, '11, 09:12

Saudi and Iran next. maybe (hopefully) Venezuela.

regrettably all oil producers. oil price will go through the roof and the US economy will finally go into its double dip recession. China may not be able to pull us out of the swamp on its own this time.
Last edited by Morrolan on 23rd Feb, '11, 14:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by slinky » 22nd Feb, '11, 09:29

I agree on Iran. I was talking to an Iranian friend a few weeks ago who says it's only a matter of time. He was there visiting with his family over the Christmas holidays. Unfortunately, he says it's very likely to be pretty bloody :( Hope he's wrong on that part.

On a slightly different note, I saw something recently about the median age of all these countries and they all have median ages in the early to mid 20's, which certainly gives some explanation of what's causing all this upheaval - the main population simply doesn't get the leaders' ideas/ideals.

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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Lichtgestalt » 22nd Feb, '11, 15:38

slinky wrote:On a slightly different note, I saw something recently about the median age of all these countries and they all have median ages in the early to mid 20's, which certainly gives some explanation of what's causing all this upheaval - the main population simply doesn't get the leaders' ideas/ideals.
THat might be because the leaders ideas and ideals are pretty self-centered... A shame the Bahreinis (?) couldn't keep their feet still until the 14th of March ;)

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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by nev » 22nd Feb, '11, 16:01

Will there be more babies named Facebook?

http://www.news.com.au/technology/and-t ... 6009859688

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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by slinky » 22nd Feb, '11, 17:19

Lichtgestalt wrote:
slinky wrote:On a slightly different note, I saw something recently about the median age of all these countries and they all have median ages in the early to mid 20's, which certainly gives some explanation of what's causing all this upheaval - the main population simply doesn't get the leaders' ideas/ideals.
THat might be because the leaders ideas and ideals are pretty self-centered... A shame the Bahreinis (?) couldn't keep their feet still until the 14th of March ;)
Fair point on the self-centered ideas and ideals. I guess part of what struck me was the median age being so young compared to other countries - I think the US median age is about 37 and Singapore's is close to 40. FYI Germany's is about 44.

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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Tas » 22nd Feb, '11, 17:47

Quite interesting point about the age slinky, presume family size contributes to that statistic, pretty sure US, Sing, Germany have small # children/family, which expect would shift that median, either way it seems like a larger 'youth' percentage.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by slinky » 22nd Feb, '11, 17:54

Yes, that has to be it, Tas. Australia's median age is about 37, btw. Egypt shows a birth rate of 25.02 births for every 1000 people where the US shows not quite 14 for every 1000 people. And Singapore shows 8.65 births for every 1000 people -- no wonder they are pushing people to have babies here.

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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Fat Bob » 10th Mar, '11, 20:17

Just seen that France has recognised the rebels as the legitimate government in Libya. Now then, why should a set of people that have come to power via force be any more legitimate than the current government which has ruled by force for the last 40 years.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Mr Oz » 11th Mar, '11, 05:30

:roll: take a blue pill bob and go back to happy days... :) '
JULIA GILLARD has split with Kevin Rudd by refusing to back incessant calls by her Foreign Minister for a no-fly zone over strife-torn Libya.
After days of growing tension caused by Mr Rudd's calls for action, Ms Gillard said yesterday that other options to a no-fly zone must be considered.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard- ... 1bpt2.html

This confirms my suspicions that the US and UK are quitely backing Giddffi and allowing war plans to continue to strafe peaceful protesters. Giddaffi assets are still are yet to be frozen in the UK and the US is going all around this no-fly zone thing. Yeap as per usual US/UK only care about control of the oil.

On a side note, the fact this article is released confirms that rudd's faceless men are seeking regime change in Australia. [smilie=groovy.gif]
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Morrolan » 11th Mar, '11, 09:37

ridiculous: if the US intervenes they are bad people who are doing it for the oil, if they don't they are bad people who are only after the oil. bullshit, Mr Oz.

they can't win, can they? why would they have to do anything, mate? especially since the UN security council is blocked by the Russians and Chinese from doing anything?

i thought people wanted the US to stop policing the world...

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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by T2K » 11th Mar, '11, 10:26

Good call Morro. Is it "Yanks go home" or "Yanks save our asses" or "Yanks kick their asses for us"? Choose one!

In regards to all this ME stuff - the current regimes seem like a bunch of assholes. But they sell us oil. It's very likely the new regimes will be a bunch of assholes. But they will still sell us oil. Let history take it's course.

If some ExxonMobil or Shell or BP assets get nationalized in the process, boo hoo. A risk of doing business.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Joseph27 » 11th Mar, '11, 11:40

Its hard to watch the TV when the story turns to Libya, so I found an idea solution - I turned off the TV, done it was all over. it isn’t a situation I can control, influence and it is one that can be deeply depressing so rather than waste the negative energy, I will do something more productive.

Gaddafi looks like he could stay – he has the dollars and a very average army who are happy to fire into civilians. That's the key that Hosni Mubarak lacked... his army pulled its support, Gadaffi's are paid by the hour and lack the discipline to care about reputation and simply shoot when asked to shoot regardless.

A no fly zone sounds incredibly easy – they are no longer allowed to bomb civilians... whose going to police that? What happens if a Libyan jet starts pounding a civilian position with a Mig 23/25/Su24/Su27/Mirage F1? At best its 3rd generation airforce and no match to the US but to a rebel group – it’s a major hurdle.

Scenario – an FA18 super hornet flies in - it needs aerial refueling, and an AWACs plane to monitor airspace. The Hornet fires in an AMRAAM and blows up the Libyan jet before the pilot even knows what’s heading his way. The FA18 however is in Libyan air space and now threatened by any number of SAM’s – mostly older stuff like the SA-2 / 3 / 5’s.

If a plane goes down, is the pilot rescued or forsaken? Obviously they would be rescued so you suddenly need a delta force/rangers backup group for rescue missions… What if the pilot goes down in Tripoli? – it’s not an easy thing to enforce a no fly zone though its very easy to say it and then critique the president for not immediately initiating it..

There is no acceptable endgame in Libya – the government has lost its legitimacy but there are no alternatives waiting in the wings. At best Libyan has its self a prolonged civil war where the rebels slowly start to form a coherent political opposition. That will take a lot longer than the average American consumer’s attention span…. Alternatively you can just keep Gadaffi – smash the opposition, kill a couple of thousand trouble makes and bring oil back below a $100 a barrel.. that sounds like a winner in todays world.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Tas » 11th Mar, '11, 11:43

what does a world not so heavily dependent on oil look like ya think?
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by T2K » 11th Mar, '11, 11:57

Depends what the replacement is.

I recently read a good book set in Thailand called "The Windup Girl" where, in a post-oil future, the world's energy primarily comes from manually wound, energy efficient springs. Huge genetically modified elephants are used to wind the springs (which are very small in comparison to the energy they can store). Coal-diesel is a rare and expensive form of fuel in this book.

It's got to get worse (more expensive oil) before it can get better (serious reliance on renewable energy). Human history always works on a crisis-resolution basis.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Joseph27 » 11th Mar, '11, 12:34

T2K wrote:It's got to get worse (more expensive oil) before it can get better (serious reliance on renewable energy). Human history always works on a crisis-resolution basis.
Agree - humanity has however demonstrated a propensity for rapid change when necessary. The WWII example is interesting in the case of the US where prewar military spending was a small percentage of GDP... Come 1943 half the economy has shifted to the war effort. That will ultimately be what is required with the worlds energy crisis though there is now a huge question over the willingness to make a tough call.

I am interested to see China's development in this area - the US isnt the country it was in the 1940's and even if confronted with the most profound energy crisis, you would still get opportunistic assholes like Glen Beck cashing in by saying how flawed the strategy is... China however can just shift overnight and ignore the criticism or jail those who disagree. Ultimately the Chinese will win the battle in the renewable areas. The closest the US is going in this space is to subsidize a massive LG battery plant on US soil.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Tas » 11th Mar, '11, 13:32

On the China thing, it's completely fascinating driving through the Hebei provence up past the great wall. You will be passed by a minimum of 5 wind turbines each drive- the blades are meters and meters long. And in the last 5 years there are massive farms of the things have gone up. Our office in Beijing is next door to a group who do vibration analysis on the units - big business. Also you'll drive past these bodgy looking villages, with shiny solar panels on their roof. You see all that, and then simultaneously observe over 4 coal power stations in construction/completed. I don't read the articles I just watch what has been built around me in the last few years - quite fascinating. Then there is the 5 year plans! The regions are given water and energy targets / KPIs and in most regions, if a local town is measured to not be meeting them, in come the Beijing central agency, given a mountain of hard time to the local agency, and baby, everything is shut down. Power is turned off. Imagine if they did that in the western worlds, shut your major tax supplying businesses down because the government KPI was not met. fun times
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Mr Oz » 11th Mar, '11, 16:18

Morrolan wrote:ridiculous... bullshit, Mr Oz.
Sorry Morro.
Libya: 'Gaddafi will prevail', says Barack Obama's intelligence chief
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi will defeat the rebels in Libya, Barack Obama’s intelligence chief said on Thursday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... chief.html

Seems pretty clear to me....Don't give me the US hands are tied in the UN crap. If it was in the US best interest there would be a no-fly zone. It isn't so there is not.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Joseph27 » 20th Mar, '11, 11:34

It seems like the past 2 months has been a boom time for the media.... revolutions in the Mid East, 8.9 quake in Japan, Nuclear disaster, and now war with Libya... It’s a crazy time.... Mixed feelings on Libya though – I love that Gadaffi will soon be either in The Hague or dead and his band of militia torn apart. I am uncomfortable however with such strong action taking against a 2 bit dictator whilst we sit idly by and watch the Saudi's have a free reign. I think the ultimate would be for Iran to go through this sort of revolution.

It’s the best move for them now in this chess game, the nuclear threat is coverable, any conventional threats present a minor irritant in the scheme of things, and the US has shown itself to be in absolute self denial vis'e'vis their foreign policy of democratization when the Saudi’s can do what they want and Bahrain will just have to put up with it for the sake of the base for the US fleet and the flow of oil.

A democratic Iran would present a major threat to the Saudi’s; far in excess of what can be achieved militarily. A democratic Iran can show the duplicity of US and Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East and highlight the repressive Sunni regimes still aligned to the US. Unfortunately although this process will happen, it will most likely be after a bloody uprising. If however, the Ayatollah’s want to stay connected – they can start to open the doors to the young generation of Iranians whilst disbanding their legions of repressive thugs. You don’t always need the biggest gun to strike down your enemy; sometimes a peaceful gesture goes a lot further and is a lot more effective.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Snaffled » 20th Mar, '11, 12:34

Although big guns normally help.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Fat Bob » 20th Mar, '11, 14:21

Joe27 proves he's a nutter: "Democratic Iran"
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Joseph27 » 20th Mar, '11, 14:46

I don't believe that there is anyway the Ayatollah's will reliquish their grip on power without a fight, however in time, Iran's youth will bring down this regime and in its place will be the foundation of a great country.

Oh and I do concede to being a nutter, however I challenge you to point out an entirely sane person in crazy place :-P
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Mr Oz » 21st Mar, '11, 14:38

Fat Bob wrote:Joe27 proves he's a nutter: "Democratic Iran"
For once I agree with FB. Never going to happen even if there is a military conflict. BTW Iran is actually a (sic) democracy, in fact in some ways they are more democratic then quite a few other US supported "democracies", there have more then 1 candidate and the result isn't known before people get a chance to vote.

The libya thing has me perplexed. The US were doing the double speak for a while talking tough but dragging their feet at the UN, then when there looked like a slaughter was about to happen they about faced and decided to push the "no fly-zone" vote at UN. Initially it appeared only the UK and France where going to enforce it but action was delayed due to a (false) ceasefire by giddafi. After that was exposed they then decided to jump in and lead the bombing. Huh? No idea why. I don't even have a theory! The only thing I can think of is the president obama decided after first complying with all the Oil and special "anti-islamic state" special interest groups, decided to grow a spine and make his own decisions.
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Re: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and...?

Post by Fat Bob » 21st Mar, '11, 15:05

Hold on a sec: how come no one is out in uproar over the attacks by the Brits, Yanks and Frogs from Italian airbases? Seems strange, where is the succession plans should Gaddaffi be ousted?

I'm just thinking - ah, just let 'em go kill themselves and we'll go in to mop up any oil left over. Sounds good?
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