Financial Meltdown (The World)

[BoD]

Yes, and I still believe that to some extent the world has talked itself into a crisis. There are still the same number of people with the same needs and desires as before

[Kooky]

One would think so, but we had needs and desires in the late 70s and early 80s but you didn't ask people, "what do you do?", you just assumed they were on the dole. Certainly in the north of England.

[Monkey Hanger]

That's what I was told too. Course, I'm far too young to remember it myself.

[azzam]

Yes, and I still believe that to some extent the world has talked itself into a crisis. There are still the same number of people with the same needs and desires as before

See, that's what I've been thinking too. But apparently I know nothing. As someone pointed out to me recently, people can't stay depressed forever, eventually they will just tire of all the gloom and start living again.

[Bob the Builder]

I think you're right there BoD. It all comes along with the use of very emotive language - collapse, tanking, market in freefall and of course "toxic" to which has been added poisonous. The best one I heard was that "the UK economy had ground to a halt".

24 hour rolling news takes a lot of the blame in my mind, especially since I don't think the journos understand what they are reporting about - that has been very evident from the comments about the much commented upon institution which I work for.

[slinky]

24 hour rolling news takes a lot of the blame in my mind,

That's a good point -- these 24 hour stations have just way too much time to fill & not enough to talk about so they yammer on and on about nothing and too often about stuff they know very little about.

[Kooky]

That's what I was told too. Course, I'm far too young to remember it myself.

[Fat Bob]

Yes, and I still believe that to some extent the world has talked itself into a crisis. There are still the same number of people with the same needs and desires as before

..........but just wanting to pay less money for those desires....

[Tack]

Yes, and I still believe that to some extent the world has talked itself into a crisis. There are still the same number of people with the same needs and desires as before

..........but just wanting to pay less money for those desires....

As long as one still has a job this is a real possibility. Stuff and services here in UK at least are great value at the moment. I'm being a voracious bottom-feeder

[baloo]

It works both ways though. The hysteria of a boom period, easy money to be made in the stock market, property market, easy credit to buy a doodah, also fuels the good times to a point where they are too inflated.

As for mass public sentiment dragging the economy down, I think the mass market sentiment lags what the actual economy is doing. What the masses think today is what the situation was a few months ago. When the economy turns, or at least levels out after this plummet, it will take a good 6 months or more before people start to realise it.

[Lili Von Shtupp]

I think the "same number of people with the same needs and desires" is not correct. From what I understand, this mess is because the same number of people believed they had tons of needs and borrowed money to buy every desire. Now, although the number of people remains the same, what people realize are needs is much less than before, and the things they desire they are realizing that they never could afford in the first place. So the "same needs and desires" is definitely not happening, IMHO.

[Dinosaur]

I agree with Lili - debt is the difference. I do remember the 70s and 80s and don't mind admitting it and I went out to work in the 70s and had very little money then, and if there was something you wanted and didn't have the money for it, you didn't buy it. You saved up. The only debts seemed to be mortgages in those days and that was seen as an investment for the future (whether rightly or wrongly).

[Joseph27]

I think the "same number of people with the same needs and desires" is not correct. From what I understand, this mess is because the same number of people believed they had tons of needs and borrowed money to buy every desire. Now, although the number of people remains the same, what people realize are needs is much less than before, and the things they desire they are realizing that they never could afford in the first place. So the "same needs and desires" is definitely not happening, IMHO.

The consumptive culture that has been perpetuated over the past few decades has, I believe, been instrumental in bringing us to where we are today. The levels of personal debt are so high and the model of simply buying more stuff on credit, cannot continue indefinitely. I think desires remain unchanged but the means to afford them has been altered dramatically. Debt levels have to reduce - if you look at the US market - until recently there hasnt been a savings ratio as such; people just spent what they earnt plus topped up on credit to get what they couldnt afford. This helped drive the world economy but it is not a sustainable model and it was always going to fail. Add to that the financial manipulation around many financial products and you have a fundamentally screwed up system.

I heard we reached the bottom the other day - I am not convinced as I see a few more hiccups - perhaps July will signal rock bottom

[baloo]

July ? I'm hearing 2010 before things are at a steady enough base to start growing again and the people I am hearing it from have a very vested interest in this crisis ending as quick as possible.

These last 3 days have been a suckers rally.

[Dinosaur]

See, that's what I've been thinking too. But apparently I know nothing. As someone pointed out to me recently, people can't stay depressed forever, eventually they will just tire of all the gloom and start living again.

I think people are still living and enjoying aren't they, but maybe with a little belt-tightening where needed (that's what we're doing anyway). Though admittedly, if you've just lost your job or have job fears, then it's going to be depressing for a while for sure. And for working expats, it's a jittery time.

[Joseph27]

I say July in hope Insha'Allah we will recover soon. Insha'Allah I will also win the lotto and not have to care about working

[Fat Bob]

Hmmmm....now, everyone, look back 18-24 months ago. Aside from thr call "cash is king", what were you saying then? How many of you cashed to be king?

As much as we can all turn around after the fact....you're all adults, who did something before?

/

[Dinosaur]

Hmmmm....now, everyone, look back 18-24 months ago. Aside from thr call "cash is king", what were you saying then? How many of you cashed to be king?

As much as we can all turn around after the fact....you're all adults, who did something before?

/

Meaning what exactly??? Don't understand this posting - have you been at the fizzy-pop?

[Morrolan]

Hmmmm....now, everyone, look back 18-24 months ago. Aside from thr call "cash is king", what were you saying then? How many of you cashed to be king?

As much as we can all turn around after the fact....you're all adults, who did something before?

/

i did...

[baloo]

I cashed out of all equities that I could in November 2007. I've been holding cash ever since.

[daffodil]

Keeping it under the bed, eh?

[Dinosaur]

Never liked equities. Cash is king though interest rates are miserable

[Morrolan]

ok, this is interesting and a resulting trend could have serious implications for a US recovery (US definitely not out of the woods yet):

India shows hedge-fund savvy with huge gold buy.

i must say i never expected a resurgence in gold hoarding, but it has some merit...

India’s 200 metric-ton deal wasn’t huge considering how much gold central banks hold. It’s the symbolism that matters as the US struggles to keep the dollar’s slide orderly and panic- free. Consider India the vanguard of central banks more aggressively diversifying reserves away from US assets.

which we all know would not be a good thing for the US interest rate and thus its recovery outlook.

[Dinosaur]

Morrolan, that's an interesting article isn't it. I saw it in the news yesterday about India but didn't quite grasp the implications. Interesting times eh?

Still a lot of worsening news for US and UK I fear. Oz seems to be well under control though - what do you Aussie residents think?

[baloo]

Oz seems to be well under control though - what do you Aussie residents think?

This should be an interesting question because from what I've been hearing, Rudd hasn't done a single thing right since being elected yet Australia seems to have navigated the GFC as well as any other country.