Financial Meltdown (The World)

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by avatarless » 6th Feb, '09, 02:47

For an investment, if you have you're heart set on dry bulk shippping, I would avoid DRYS and buy DSX. DRYS has serious debt problems. It also has a float of only 20 million shares....

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Lichtgestalt » 6th Feb, '09, 05:23

What about the outlook for gold (not the kind around womens necks)? Traditionally it should be a safe haven but some say it won't

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Morrolan » 6th Feb, '09, 05:23

BoD wrote:so it's not a comment on its ability to stay upright in rough seas?
or lack of? it could be...

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Morrolan » 6th Feb, '09, 05:36

avatarless wrote:For an investment, if you have you're heart set on dry bulk shippping, I would avoid DRYS and buy DSX. DRYS has serious debt problems. It also has a float of only 20 million shares....
A'less, that's a scary avatar... :lol:

anyway, don't make the mistake of underestimating George Economou, many people have done that before. he's the master of the turnaround (not seldomly at the expense of investors). i recall the late 90s when everyone thought his company would go down.
the only investment i would make in shipping is to buy vessels myself. i wouldn't trust on what is for all intents and purposes junk bond investment type companies without a significant amount of 'fuck you' money.

this site is a dream forgood fundamental info on shipping and commodities.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by avatarless » 6th Feb, '09, 05:41

Lichtgestalt wrote:What about the outlook for gold (not the kind around womens necks)? Traditionally it should be a safe haven but some say it won't

There is a huge debate about gold right now. In the long term, the debasement of the major reserve currencies should goose the demand for gold. There is huge uncertaintly about which currency(s) will emerge supreme, so storing value temporarly in gold until it all gets sorted sort of makes sense. And of course there's the issue of inflation. In the short term, we still seem to be in a deflationary debt-unwind, which means gold could end up getting sold off to raise cash for debts. I'm also not convinced tthat the demand for gold will goose prices all that much. Russia is in serious trouble and could potentially sell off some of it's supposedly substantial resserves in order to raise cash. Ditto the IMF which is broke and needs to raise cash for bailouts. Finally, central banks hold a lot of gold and hate to see their fiat currencies competing with gold; so, I wouldn't be surprised if they start selling as well if the market gets crazy. Just my thoughts. I really have no idea what I'm taliing about...

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by avatarless » 6th Feb, '09, 05:46

M,

Thanks for the link. I have a heard a rumor that george intends to drive DRYS into bankruptcy so he can sell the assets at distressed prices to his private shipping company, Cardiff. Assets bought with his sharholder's and bondholder's money... Do you know about this? TIA.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Morrolan » 6th Feb, '09, 05:58

avatarless wrote:M,

Thanks for the link. I have a heard a rumor that george intends to drive DRYS into bankruptcy so he can sell the assets at distressed prices to his private shipping company, Cardiff. Assets bought with his sharholder's and bondholder's money... Do you know about this? TIA.
the things i could tell you...

have a look here: http://shipchartering.blogspot.com/2008 ... ships.html

and do a search on that site for Dryships.

anyway, i consider gold a hideyhole investment for end of the world nutters who think they can use it as money when society breaks down. a bit medieval.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by avatarless » 6th Feb, '09, 06:40

Morrolan wrote:
avatarless wrote:M,

Thanks for the link. I have a heard a rumor that george intends to drive DRYS into bankruptcy so he can sell the assets at distressed prices to his private shipping company, Cardiff. Assets bought with his sharholder's and bondholder's money... Do you know about this? TIA.
the things i could tell you...

have a look here: http://shipchartering.blogspot.com/2008 ... ships.html

and do a search on that site for Dryships.

anyway, i consider gold a hideyhole investment for end of the world nutters who think they can use it as money when society breaks down. a bit medieval.

Totally agree on the gold opinion. But if there are enough nutters, the gold miners should be doing pretty brisk business, no?

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Kooky » 6th Feb, '09, 06:47

Avatarless, you're looking freaky.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by skank-la » 7th Feb, '09, 04:19

Who knew? A dead woman caused the financial crisis:

Paul Kelleher: Yes, I'm calling to inform you that my mom died on the 24th of January.

Bank of America Estates representative: I'm sorry. Oh, it looks like she never even missed a payment. That's too bad. Well, how are you planning to take care of her balance?

PK: I'm not going to. She has no estate to speak of, but you should feel free to just go through the standard probate procedure. I'm certainly not legally obligated to pay for her.

BOA: You mean you're not going to help her out?

PK: I wouldn't be helping her out -- she's dead. I'd be helping you out.

BOA: Oh, that's really not the way to look at it. I know that if it were my mother, I'd pay it. That's why we're in the banking crisis we're in: banks having to write off defaulted loans.
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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by slinky » 9th Feb, '09, 08:15

Nice one, Skank :lol:

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Rosbif71 » 9th Feb, '09, 11:32

Morrolan wrote:
avatarless wrote:For an investment, if you have you're heart set on dry bulk shippping, I would avoid DRYS and buy DSX. DRYS has serious debt problems. It also has a float of only 20 million shares....
A'less, that's a scary avatar... :lol:

anyway, don't make the mistake of underestimating George Economou, many people have done that before. he's the master of the turnaround (not seldomly at the expense of investors). i recall the late 90s when everyone thought his company would go down.
the only investment i would make in shipping is to buy vessels myself. i wouldn't trust on what is for all intents and purposes junk bond investment type companies without a significant amount of 'fuck you' money.

this site is a dream forgood fundamental info on shipping and commodities.
second hand and newbuilding prices are still on the high side. back in 2001 I negotiated to build 4 x 52,000 bulkers in China at 18mil each. think you'd still get close to 30mil each today.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Aliya » 9th Feb, '09, 11:40

I am more worried you are looking for a cheap dressing table :D
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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by baloo » 17th Feb, '09, 11:36

Doesn't sound very healthy......

[center]Ireland ‘could default on debt’[/center]
FEARS are mounting that Ireland could default on its soaring national debt pile, amid continuing worries about its troubled banking sector.

The cost of buying insurance against Irish government bonds rose to record highs on Friday, having almost tripled in a week. Debt-market investors now rank Ireland as the most troubled economy in Europe.

Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, called for this weekend’s meeting of G7 finance ministers to put Ireland’s troubles at the top of the agenda.

Johnson said: “Don’t, please, tell me more about the basic principles of financial reform unless and until you have addressed the Irish problem. And don’t tell me the Irish have to sort this out for themselves. Eventually, the world always comes to help; check your notes on Iceland.

“It’s much better and much cheaper to come in early and decisively. We need a plan of action for Ireland, and we need it now.”

Pledges made by Ireland to support its banking sector amount to 220% of the country’s annual economic output. The total loans held in Irish banks are more than 11 times the size of the economy.

Following the scandal at Anglo Irish Bank over undisclosed loans, the market fears there are more hidden problems that could ultimately fall to the state to resolve.

With Ireland set to borrow an additional €15 billion (£13.4 billion) this year, the national debt pile will hit €70 billion.

The cost of insuring Irish debt hit 350 basis points on Friday, meaning that for every £100 of debt it would cost £3.50 to insure against default. A year ago it would have cost 10p to insure every £100 of Irish debt.

One possible solution would see Germany buy billions of euros of Irish government debt through a fund set up by the European Central Bank.
So…if you wish to wish a wish, you may swish for fish with my Ish wish dish.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Morrolan » 17th Feb, '09, 12:49

Rosbif71 wrote:second hand and newbuilding prices are still on the high side. back in 2001 I negotiated to build 4 x 52,000 bulkers in China at 18mil each. think you'd still get close to 30mil each today.
i think you'll struggle at that price for an 8 year old bulker. anyway, not looking at small Panamax (or very big Handymax?), but more Capesize given the oversupply in vessels there. i don't think the time is right, though, the market hasn't yet shaken all the rotten apples from the tree, and it may even not come to pass if the current BDI trend continues.

it's a waiting game now, all depending on the way the market rallies and finance becomes/remains available. did you see HSH's results?? :shock:
Last edited by Morrolan on 17th Feb, '09, 12:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by Dinosaur » 17th Feb, '09, 17:33

Woooh that's scary about Ireland. I don't really get it about Germany bailing them out though - I thought Germany was in deep doo-doo as well? It's all getting too complicated for me.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by baloo » 23rd Feb, '09, 14:39

The banking crisis explained. Well, more a summary of how Madhoff made some much money.

Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a donkey from a farmer for $100.
The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day.
The next day he drove up and said, 'Sorry son, but I have some bad
news--the donkey died.'
Chuck replied, 'Well, then just give me my money back.'
The farmer said, 'Can't do that. I spent it already.'
Chuck said, 'OK, then, just bring me the dead donkey.'
The farmer asked, 'What ya gonna do with him?
Chuck said, 'I'm going to raffle him off.'
The farmer said 'You can't raffle off a dead donkey!'
Chuck said, 'Sure I can. Watch me. I just won't tell anybody he's dead.'
A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, 'What happened
with that dead donkey?'
Chuck said, 'I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars apiece
and made a profit of $898.00.'
The farmer said, 'Didn't anyone complain?'
Chuck said, 'Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.'
Chuck now works for Goldman Sachs.
So…if you wish to wish a wish, you may swish for fish with my Ish wish dish.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by baloo » 23rd Feb, '09, 14:39

or a deeper one for those who like maths...

Two guys are sitting in the bar, One is named Bill, and other other is John. Bill asks John if he can find out if his wife is cheating on him, John says no problem but says it will cost Bill $100, Bill gives John $100 to find out who is sleeping with his wife.

Bill leaves the bar and John takes the $100 bill to the barman and says, here is the $100 I owed you, my debt to you is now gone, the barman is happy.

The barman then goes to the kitchen hand out the back and gives the kitchen hand that same $100 note, 'here is the $100 I owed you, my debt to you is now gone..'

The Kitchen hand then goes to the chef and gives the chef the $100, 'here is the $100 I owed you chef, my debt to you is now gone..'

The chef takes the $100 and then goes and see's John out at the bar, the chef gives John the $100 note, 'here you go John, its the $100 I owe you, my debt to you is now gone..'

Bill returns to the bar.. and asks John if he knows anything yet, John says 'No I dont know who is sleeping with your wife, so you can have your $100 back'..

So what just happened.... how much money was spent.. and who benefited?
So…if you wish to wish a wish, you may swish for fish with my Ish wish dish.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by slinky » 23rd Feb, '09, 15:42

baloo wrote:or a deeper one for those who like maths...

Two guys are sitting in the bar, One is named Bill, and other other is John. Bill asks John if he can find out if his wife is cheating on him, John says no problem but says it will cost Bill $100, Bill gives John $100 to find out who is sleeping with his wife.

Bill leaves the bar and John takes the $100 bill to the barman and says, here is the $100 I owed you, my debt to you is now gone, the barman is happy.

The barman then goes to the kitchen hand out the back and gives the kitchen hand that same $100 note, 'here is the $100 I owed you, my debt to you is now gone..'

The Kitchen hand then goes to the chef and gives the chef the $100, 'here is the $100 I owed you chef, my debt to you is now gone..'

The chef takes the $100 and then goes and see's John out at the bar, the chef gives John the $100 note, 'here you go John, its the $100 I owe you, my debt to you is now gone..'

Bill returns to the bar.. and asks John if he knows anything yet, John says 'No I dont know who is sleeping with your wife, so you can have your $100 back'..

So what just happened.... how much money was spent.. and who benefited?
Well, I'm confused, but it seems like everyone except Bill benefitted (they all paid off their debts). Bill didn't get the job he wanted done but he did get his money back, so......... [smilie=quoi.gif]

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by baloo » 23rd Feb, '09, 15:45

Nothing was spent overall, but $100 was spent initially which in turn paid off $400 in debt.

When I first read that little fable I couldn't help but but wonder if the whole debt industry is just smoke and mirrors.
So…if you wish to wish a wish, you may swish for fish with my Ish wish dish.

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by slinky » 23rd Feb, '09, 15:52

baloo wrote:Nothing was spent overall, but $100 was spent initially which in turn paid off $400 in debt.

When I first read that little fable I couldn't help but but wonder if the whole debt industry is just smoke and mirrors.
Well it certainly sounds like smoke and mirrors.....but 4 people paid their debts - there must be something to the fact that all of the people were in debt to begin with, because if any one of them hadn't been in debt he would have kept the money paid back rather than turn around and use it to pay someone else, right?

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by baloo » 23rd Feb, '09, 16:01

I guess it also shows if credit freezes (the initial $100) then a lot of people will be in debt with no means of paying it off.
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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by T2K » 23rd Feb, '09, 16:03

The first one is good, but only as long as the winner doesn't make a fuss. Or, if he's complicit in the whole thing.

The second one makes sense, as $400 in debt could also be created the same way (just reverse the chain) with $100.
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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by slinky » 23rd Feb, '09, 16:10

baloo wrote:I guess it also shows if credit freezes (the initial $100) then a lot of people will be in debt with no means of paying it off.
OK, that makes sense, but in the case of credit freeze wouldn't they just have to save money from their income to pay off their debt rather than wait for debts owed to them to be paid? (assuming they all have jobs)

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Re: Financial Meltdown (The World)

Post by baloo » 23rd Feb, '09, 16:14

That depends on their level of debts and whether their income is enough to service those debts.
So…if you wish to wish a wish, you may swish for fish with my Ish wish dish.

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